Trends and determinants of childhood mortality in rural South Africa: What can it tell us about the impact of government programs?

Nadine Nannan, Medical Research Council of South Africa
Debbie Bradshaw, Medical Research Council of South Africa
Rob Dorrington, University of Cape Town

Many countries experienced stagnation and reversals in child mortality trends which had been declining since the 1970’s. Studies investigating the factors responsible for this trend have attributed changes to changes in a wide range of determinants. South Africa is one of the countries that has witnessed reversals in the gains made in child mortality since about 1992 and has experienced major social changes and the implementation of government programs. The Africa Centre Demographic and Information Surveillance Area has been under surveillance since 2000 and the data provide a unique opportunity to investigate the role that government programs have had on child mortality and what age groups are particularly sensitive to conditions of poverty. Retrospective birth history data will be modeled to investigate the associations between crude indicators of government programs that may have had an impact on child health.

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Presented in Session 11: Explaining contrasting national trends and progress in achieving MDG 4